The US presidential election 2024 may be a game changer for the crypto market in the long-term period. Approximately 10% of world crypto users are adult Americans. The US crypto market regulations influence the whole market sentiment and state. While current US President Joe Biden sees cryptocurrencies as a threat and his administration comes up with aggressive measures, many American crypto companies left the US market and moved under the EU and British jurisdictions. What to expect after the US presidential election in 2024, and how do candidates use cryptocurrencies in their campaigns?
The US security law defines securities based on whether buyers expect profits. Those expectations are affected by a comprehensive range of conditions outside issuers' control resulting in risk to companies and users. At the same time, the EU regulations clearly define tokens depending on factors under issuers' control. Everyone says the US needs a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, but nothing went further than just proposals.
The US policymakers are deliberating about whether to have CBDC. The anti-CBDC parties are concerned about privacy and government control over the US citizens that are against democracy and the US values. The loudest example of using CBDC is exposed in China, where Communist Party tightens control over people and the economy. If the US digital dollar appears, it should follow the interests of Americans and prioritize their private life. Potential presidential candidates from Democrats and Republicans are against CBDC.
The presidential administration considers crypto users and service providers as tax evaders and the crypto market as a tax gap. Thus Joe Biden proposed a mining tax of 10% of used electricity in 2023 and 30% in 2026 that didn't make it into a bill. However, Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks crypto transactions and provides clear tax rules. Thus crypto may be subject to Income Tax or Capital Gains Tax depending on transactions. Mining is subject to Income Tax.
The US is the world's largest economy, exposing over 25% of the gross world product. Such political changes in the USA influence the whole world.
The USA is home to large established crypto companies such as Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, Circle and others. An estimated 37.7 million Americans own crypto, approximately 10% of the world's crypto users. One person, on average, invests $10,200 in cryptos, prioritizing centralized platforms.
New regulations depend on the crypto approach of the future president, the administration and the team. It is a battle for the end customers since crypto users appreciate anonymity, financial freedom, security and transparency and may withdraw their assets from the US-based exchanges. Anti-crypto regulations may crash the market and force crypto users to withdraw funds, drop prices and get stuck in a bearish state.
The US president exposes an anti-crypto approach during his term, causing him to lose his youth voters. He considers most cryptocurrencies to have no fundamental value and the American crypto market as the most crucial tax gap. His administration is working on restrictions for the crypto market and increasing taxes.
The former president mainly claims Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are a scam and financial crimes tools. Their value is based on thin air, and when he proposed budget for 2021 included cryptocurrencies, they were represented only for crimes usage. However, his administration believes the distributed ledger technology can serve the government's cybersecurity.
The Republican candidate promised to protect "the ability to do things like Bitcoin" and fight the "central planners" at Capitol Hill. The Florida Governor is considered "the choice for crypto enthusiasts in 2024". He proposed to allow businesses to pay the state fees in cryptocurrencies. DeSantis is radically against the CBDC and sees it as Big Brother controlling citizens. He signed a bill restricting CBDCs in Florida. The whole state supported his crypto enthusiasm. Miami has introduced its cryptocurrency built on the Bitcoin blockchain, and the city hosts the largest Bitcoin event.
He is the first-ever presidential candidate to accept crypto donations for his campaign. Kennedy considers Bitcoin a symbol of democracy and freedom and crypto technologies the major innovation engine. The candidate is opposite CBDCs as they only increase the power of the government.
The candidate accepts crypto donations for his presidential run campaign in Bitcoin. Ramaswamy suggests Bitcoin should be regulated as security since it has no issuer.
The possible candidates to get vast votes are against cryptocurrencies taking the crypto market to times of restrictions and overcontrol. The crypto approach is unlikely to be the reason to vote for one or another candidate. However, let's keep an eye on the US presidential run and stay cool-headed since the upcoming Bitcoin halving may have a positive bullish effect.